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Official Picks

Today's card

High-confidence value bets vetted by Oddsmosis AI and our EV stack.

Generated Nov 30

Pick

Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres

NHL • Spread

Winnipeg Jets -1.5 @ 205

Edge 36.1% • Confidence 80%

Jets -1.5 shows massive 36% edge with strong model confidence. Recent form concerns and injury uncertainty warrant caution despite favorable matchup.

Drivers

  • Significant 36.08% edge between true probability (68.9%) and sportsbook probability (32.8%)
  • Jets' offensive firepower: Kyle Connor (12G, 17A) vs. Sabres' defensive struggles (-12 goal differential)
  • Sabres' recent collapse: 5-5 in last 10 games, 3.4 goals allowed per game

Risks

  • Jets' concerning form: 4-6-0 in last 10 games, averaging only 2.9 goals per game
  • Neal Pionk (D) day-to-day with lower body injury—status unclear for Monday matchup
View matchup

Pick

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz

NBA • Moneyline

Utah Jazz ML @ 445

Edge 28.8% • Confidence 80%

Jazz ML at +445 offers significant value with 28.78% edge. Model projects 47.1% win probability vs 18.4% implied odds—a rare mispricing on home underdog.

Drivers

  • Massive odds mispricing: Sportsbook implies 18.4% Jazz win probability vs model's 47.1%—nearly 3x undervalued
  • Home court advantage: Jazz 5-5 ATS at Delta Center this season; Rockets 8-2 on road but facing 12.5-point spread inflation
  • Recent Jazz momentum: Won last game 128-119 vs Sacramento with Keyonte George (31 pts) and Lauri Markkanen (28 pts) both healthy

Risks

  • Rockets' elite form: 12-4 record, 8-2 in last 10 games, 4-game road winning streak with dominant offensive efficiency (118.9 PPG, 46.9% FG)
  • Double-digit spread legitimacy: 12.5-point line reflects real talent gap; Jazz 0-4 ATS as 12.5+ underdogs this season
View matchup

Pick

Columbus Blue Jackets @ New Jersey Devils

NHL • Moneyline

Columbus Blue Jackets ML @ 320

Edge 26.2% • Confidence 80%

CBJ ML at +320 offers 26% edge with 50% true probability vs 24% sportsbook. Strong value but team form and goal differential present execution risk.

Drivers

  • Significant +26.19% edge between true probability (50%) and sportsbook probability (23.8%)
  • Attractive +320 odds provide 1.10 units expected value on unit bet
  • No critical injuries for either team entering matchup

Risks

  • Columbus 1-4 in last 5 games vs New Jersey 3-2—stark form differential favors home team
  • CBJ averages only 2.5 goals per game while conceding 3.2—negative goal differential suggests offensive struggles
View matchup
All Leagues NFL NBA NHL MMA
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NFL

National Football League

5 games scheduled

Thursday, September 18

NFL
MIA
Miami Dolphins
+1500
BUF
Buffalo Bills
-7000
Spread
-12.5
Total
49.5

Sunday, September 21

NFL
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
+3500
CAR
Carolina Panthers
-50000
Spread
+5.5
Total
44.5
NFL
LV
Las Vegas Raiders
+4000
WSH
Washington Commanders
-100000
Spread
-2.5
Total
43.5
NFL
IND
Indianapolis Colts
-10000
TEN
Tennessee Titans
+3300
Spread
+5.5
Total
43.5
NFL
NYJ
New York Jets
+850
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-1750
Spread
-6.5
Total
43.5
UFC

Ultimate Fighting Championship

20 games scheduled

Saturday, September 20

UFC
PIO
Piotr Kacprzak
+132
LUK
Lukasz Charzewski
-152
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
PET
Peter Gabal
+205
DEN
Denis Frimpong
-240
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
JOS
Jose Zarauz
+135
RAU
Raul Lemberanskij
-155
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
DAV
David Hosek
+120
GEO
Georg Bilogrevic
-140
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
KEV
Kevin Enz
+700
HAF
Hafeni Nafuka
-1000
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
FAB
Fabio Moraes
+1400
FRE
Frederic Vosgröne
-2000
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
PET
Petru Buzdugan
+550
FED
Fedor Duric
-800
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
AYT
Ayton De Paepe
+750
JAM
James Hendin
-1200
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
CLA
Clara Ricignuolo
+750
ALI
Alina Dalaslan
-1200
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
DAV
David Tonatiuh Crol
+375
ATT
Attila Korkmaz
-500
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
MUS
Muslim Tulshaev
+132
AND
Andrzej Grzebyk
-152
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
MAR
Mariusz Książkiewicz
+275
SER
Sergiusz Zajac
-325
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
RIC
Ricardo Prasel
+205
SZY
Szymon Bajor
-240
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
SAS
Sasha Moisa
-150
KRY
Krystian Blezien
+130
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
ABO
Abou Tounkara
+325
DAN
Daniel Weichel
-390
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
ADA
Adam Tomasik
+320
MIC
Michal Dreczkowski
-385
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
PRZ
Przemyslaw Gorny
+245
SEB
Sebastian Decowski
-285
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
VIT
Vitaliy Yakimenko
+135
ROG
Rogerio Bontorin
-155
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
MAT
Mateusz Makarowski
+140
WEL
Welisson Paiva
-160
Rounds
-
Total
-
UFC
RIC
Richie Lewis
+475
PAT
Pat Sabatini
-650
Rounds
-
Total
-