EV Performance

Huge mispriced TB ML; market has them clear favorite while our input odds still show big plus-money value.

• Massive price mismatch: books have Tampa Bay around -130 ML (implied ~56–57%) while our sheet is using +320 (23.8%), creating an artificial 30% edge[1][3][4].

• Model true win probability of ~53.8% is directionally consistent with market and third-party projections that also have Tampa as slight to moderate favorite[1][3].

Oilers ML +320 offers 30.5% edge vs books pricing them 23.8%; model sees 54.3% win prob aligning with consensus favoritism[1][3][4].

• **Massive pricing edge**: Books at +320 (23.8% imp prob) vs model 54.3% & consensus ~55-57% imp prob (-118 to -133)[1][3][4]

• **Oilers offensive firepower**: 3.32 GF/G (5th), elite 32% PP (2nd); exploit TOR's weak 31st PP & 31.3 SA/G (31st)[1]

Oilers -1.5 (190) shows 32% edge on model; Oilers superior form, McDavid hot, Habs poor ATS (1-4 L5)

• Model edge 32.34% (true prob 66.8% vs SB 34.5%)

• Oilers 14-11-6 heating up, McDavid 12 pts/4 games incl 5G[2]

Model loves Sabres -1.5 vs Kraken at +205 with huge theoretical edge but scoreline/market realism makes it fragile.

• Very large modeled edge: true cover prob 67.6% vs implied 32.8% (+205), ~35% gap and +1.06u EV for a single alt-puckline position.

• No material injury drag on either side; both teams currently list 0 critical or key-player injuries, so projection is clean of health noise.

VGK ML +320 offers 33.6% edge vs CBJ; VGK superior record/form, elite D, CBJ slumping (0-5 L5); no injuries.

• 33.6% edge from 57.4% true prob vs 23.8% implied (+320 undervalues VGK)

• VGK 15-6-9 (.638 pts%), 3.1 GPG/2.9 GA, .886 SV%, 23.9% PP vs CBJ 13-12-6 (.533 pts%), 3.0 GPG/3.5 GA, leaky D (102 GA)