EV Performance

Review how recent recommendations have graded out across confidence tiers and edge sizes to pinpoint what is working and where we need to tighten our models.

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Official Picks

AI-backed card

Highest confidence wagers surfaced for subscribers.

19 picks last 30 days

Win rate 0.0%

NHL

Columbus Blue Jackets @ New Jersey Devils

Moneyline • Nov 30, 02:14 PM EST

Columbus Blue Jackets ML @ 320

Edge 26.2% • Confidence 80%

CBJ ML at +320 offers 26% edge with 50% true probability vs 24% sportsbook. Strong value but team form and goal differential present execution risk.

• Significant +26.19% edge between true probability (50%) and sportsbook probability (23.8%)

• Attractive +320 odds provide 1.10 units expected value on unit bet

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NBA

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz

Moneyline • Nov 30, 02:14 PM EST

Utah Jazz ML @ 445

Edge 28.8% • Confidence 80%

Jazz ML at +445 offers significant value with 28.78% edge. Model projects 47.1% win probability vs 18.4% implied odds—a rare mispricing on home underdog.

• Massive odds mispricing: Sportsbook implies 18.4% Jazz win probability vs model's 47.1%—nearly 3x undervalued

• Home court advantage: Jazz 5-5 ATS at Delta Center this season; Rockets 8-2 on road but facing 12.5-point spread inflation

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NHL

Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres

Spread • Nov 30, 02:14 PM EST

Winnipeg Jets -1.5 @ 205

Edge 36.1% • Confidence 80%

Jets -1.5 shows massive 36% edge with strong model confidence. Recent form concerns and injury uncertainty warrant caution despite favorable matchup.

• Significant 36.08% edge between true probability (68.9%) and sportsbook probability (32.8%)

• Jets' offensive firepower: Kyle Connor (12G, 17A) vs. Sabres' defensive struggles (-12 goal differential)

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NHL

Anaheim Ducks @ Chicago Blackhawks

Spread • Nov 29, 08:09 PM EST

Anaheim Ducks -1.5 @ 180

Edge 31.1% • Confidence 80%

Ducks -1.5 shows massive 31% edge with 80% confidence. Strong model alignment despite injury noise in snapshot data.

• Significant line value: 31.14% edge suggests sportsbook underpricing Ducks' true win probability (66.9% vs 35.7% implied)

• Model confidence at 80% indicates robust predictive signal on spread outcome

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NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers

Moneyline • Nov 29, 08:09 PM EST

Portland Trail Blazers ML @ 530

Edge 34.1% • Confidence 80%

Portland ML at +530 offers massive 34.13% edge with 50% true probability vs 15.9% sportsbook implied. High-value underdog with strong model conviction.

• Extreme odds mismatch: +530 American odds implies only 15.9% win probability vs model's 50% true probability

• 34.13% mathematical edge represents exceptional value on moneyline

View matchup

Win Rate

51.2%

Record 442-421-7 over the last 60 days.

Average Edge

-2.1%

Positive EV advantage vs. the book.

Average Confidence

66%

Average expected value per pick +0.002.

CLV Beat Rate

26%

Avg CLV +0.2% across 353 tracked picks.

Confidence Mix

Share of picks by confidence tier, their win rates, and how often they beat the closing line.

High (>= 80% confidence)

42%

of all picks

Win rate

50%

Average edge: -2.0%
Picks graded: 364
Average CLV: +1.6%
Beat closing: 32%

197 picks with closing line data.

Medium (50-80% confidence)

58%

of all picks

Win rate

52%

Average edge: -2.1%
Picks graded: 506
Average CLV: -1.5%
Beat closing: 19%

156 picks with closing line data.

Low (< 50% confidence)

of all picks

Win rate

Average edge: 0.0%
Picks graded: 0
Average CLV: 0.0%
Beat closing: 0%

0 picks with closing line data.

Edge vs. Results

See how larger edges have converted into wins.

Edge bucket	Picks	Share	Win rate	Avg edge	Avg EV
15%+ edge	69	8%	26%	+31.8%	+0.862
10-15% edge	19	2%	42%	+12.7%	+0.333
5-10% edge	34	4%	56%	+7.4%	+0.156
<5% edge	748	86%	54%	-6.0%	-0.093

Recent Picks

Last 100 graded picks inside the lookback window.

Settled	Matchup	Pick	Edge	Confidence	Result	EV
Nov 30, 2025	TB Lightning @ NYR Rangers Nov 29 • 2:00 PM EST	NYR Rangers ML (-130) Moneyline	-8.0%	High 80%	Loss	-0.141
Nov 30, 2025	TB Lightning @ NYR Rangers Nov 29 • 2:00 PM EST	TB Lightning ML (+110) Moneyline	+3.8%	High 80%	Win	+0.081
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	TOR Raptors -7 (-112) Spread	-3.4%	High 80%	Loss	-0.064
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	TOR Raptors -8 (-115) Spread	-4.3%	High 80%	Loss	-0.080
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	CHA Hornets +9 (-117) Spread	-4.8%	High 80%	Win	-0.087
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	TOR Raptors -7.5 (-115) Spread	-4.0%	High 80%	Loss	-0.075
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	CHA Hornets +7.5 (-110) Spread	-3.2%	High 80%	Win	-0.061
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	Over 229.5 (-114) Total	-3.1%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	Under 232.5 (-113) Total	-3.2%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.058
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	CHA Hornets ML (+215) Moneyline	+16.8%	High 80%	Win	+0.529
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	CHA Hornets +9.5 (-115) Spread	-3.4%	High 80%	Win	-0.063
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	Under 231.5 (-110) Total	-3.0%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.058
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	Under 233.5 (-112) Total	-3.2%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.059
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	CHA Hornets +8 (-110) Spread	-3.2%	High 80%	Win	-0.061
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	Over 231.5 (-110) Total	-3.0%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.058
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	Under 228.5 (-114) Total	-3.4%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.065
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	Over 233.5 (-114) Total	-3.1%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	TOR Raptors ML (-270) Moneyline	-21.5%	High 80%	Loss	-0.295
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Raptors @ CHA Hornets Nov 29 • 6:10 PM EST	Over 232.5 (-113) Total	-3.2%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.058
Nov 30, 2025	DET Red Wings @ BOS Bruins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	BOS Bruins ML (+137) Moneyline	+5.8%	High 80%	Win	+0.138
Nov 30, 2025	WPG Jets @ NSH Predators Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	WPG Jets ML (-121) Moneyline	-6.2%	High 80%	Win	-0.115
Nov 30, 2025	PHI Flyers @ NJ Devils Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Under 5.5 (-114) Total	-4.9%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.093
Nov 30, 2025	DET Red Wings @ BOS Bruins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	DET Red Wings ML (-152) Moneyline	-8.2%	High 80%	Loss	-0.138
Nov 30, 2025	PHI Flyers @ NJ Devils Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	NJ Devils -1.5 (+165) Spread	-3.9%	High 80%	Loss	-0.104
Nov 30, 2025	WPG Jets @ NSH Predators Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Under 6.5 (-140) Total	-8.7%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.147
Nov 30, 2025	WPG Jets @ NSH Predators Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	NSH Predators ML (+109) Moneyline	+3.7%	High 80%	Loss	+0.078
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	PIT Penguins ML (+110) Moneyline	+3.9%	High 80%	Loss	+0.082
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	PIT Penguins -1.5 (+228) Spread	+39.4%	High 80%	Loss	+1.291
Nov 30, 2025	WPG Jets @ NSH Predators Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Over 6 (-115) Total	-7.5%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.141
Nov 30, 2025	WPG Jets @ NSH Predators Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Under 6 (-113) Total	-5.4%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.099
Nov 30, 2025	DET Red Wings @ BOS Bruins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	DET Red Wings -1.5 (+170) Spread	+27.3%	High 80%	Loss	+0.736
Nov 30, 2025	PHI Flyers @ NJ Devils Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	PHI Flyers +1.5 (-214) Spread	-34.2%	High 80%	Win	-0.504
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	TOR Maple Leafs +1.5 (-266) Spread	-42.7%	High 80%	Win	-0.591
Nov 30, 2025	PHI Flyers @ NJ Devils Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Over 6 (-105) Total	-3.7%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.071
Nov 30, 2025	DET Red Wings @ BOS Bruins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Over 5.5 (-125) Total	-4.7%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.085
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	TOR Maple Leafs -1.5 (+210) Spread	+37.6%	High 80%	Win	+1.165
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Over 6 (-113) Total	-3.2%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.058
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Under 6 (-115) Total	-4.3%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.080
Nov 30, 2025	DET Red Wings @ BOS Bruins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Under 6 (-115) Total	-3.7%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.070
Nov 30, 2025	DET Red Wings @ BOS Bruins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	BOS Bruins +1.5 (-200) Spread	-3.3%	High 80%	Win	-0.050
Nov 30, 2025	DET Red Wings @ BOS Bruins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Under 5.5 (+106) Total	+4.1%	Medium 50%	Win	+0.083
Nov 30, 2025	PHI Flyers @ NJ Devils Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	NJ Devils ML (-140) Moneyline	-5.5%	High 80%	Loss	-0.092
Nov 30, 2025	PHI Flyers @ NJ Devils Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Over 5.5 (-120) Total	-3.4%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.061
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Over 6.5 (-105) Total	-3.1%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Under 5.5 (+112) Total	+3.3%	Medium 50%	Loss	+0.070
Nov 30, 2025	WPG Jets @ NSH Predators Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	NSH Predators +1.5 (-250) Spread	-3.7%	High 80%	Loss	-0.051
Nov 30, 2025	PHI Flyers @ NJ Devils Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	PHI Flyers ML (+128) Moneyline	+3.1%	High 80%	Win	+0.072
Nov 30, 2025	WPG Jets @ NSH Predators Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Over 6.5 (+114) Total	+3.1%	Medium 50%	Win	+0.065
Nov 30, 2025	WPG Jets @ NSH Predators Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	WPG Jets -1.5 (+204) Spread	+35.2%	High 80%	Win	+1.071
Nov 30, 2025	PHI Flyers @ NJ Devils Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Under 6 (-120) Total	-4.5%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.081
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	PIT Penguins +1.5 (-265) Spread	-22.4%	High 80%	Loss	-0.311
Nov 30, 2025	WPG Jets @ NSH Predators Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Over 5.5 (-130) Total	-5.9%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.105
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Over 5.5 (-138) Total	-7.7%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.130
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	TOR Maple Leafs ML (-110) Moneyline	-3.9%	High 80%	Win	-0.074
Nov 30, 2025	TOR Maple Leafs @ PIT Penguins Nov 29 • 7:00 PM EST	Under 6.5 (-115) Total	-4.0%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.075
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	CHI Bulls -3.5 (-114) Spread	-3.3%	High 80%	Loss	-0.063
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	Under 240.5 (-114) Total	-3.3%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.063
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	Under 243.5 (-114) Total	-3.3%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.063
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	CHI Bulls -3 (-114) Spread	-3.2%	High 80%	Loss	-0.061
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	Over 242 (-114) Total	-3.1%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	IND Pacers ML (+115) Moneyline	+3.5%	High 80%	Win	+0.075
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	CHI Bulls ML (-145) Moneyline	-9.2%	High 80%	Loss	-0.155
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	Under 241 (-115) Total	-4.8%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.089
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	Under 242.5 (-114) Total	-3.4%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.065
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	Over 242.5 (-113) Total	-3.2%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.058
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	IND Pacers +4 (-115) Spread	-3.2%	High 80%	Win	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	CHI Bulls -2.5 (-112) Spread	-3.4%	High 80%	Loss	-0.063
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	Over 240.5 (-112) Total	-4.2%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.078
Nov 30, 2025	CHI Bulls @ IND Pacers Nov 29 • 7:40 PM EST	IND Pacers +2.5 (-113) Spread	-3.1%	High 80%	Win	-0.056
Nov 30, 2025	BUF Sabres @ MIN Wild Nov 29 • 8:00 PM EST	Under 6 (+100) Total	-4.9%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.098
Nov 30, 2025	BUF Sabres @ MIN Wild Nov 29 • 8:00 PM EST	MIN Wild -1.5 (+165) Spread	-3.0%	High 80%	Loss	-0.079
Nov 30, 2025	BUF Sabres @ MIN Wild Nov 29 • 8:00 PM EST	Over 6 (-120) Total	-3.1%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.056
Nov 30, 2025	BUF Sabres @ MIN Wild Nov 29 • 8:00 PM EST	MIN Wild ML (-145) Moneyline	-7.0%	High 80%	Loss	-0.119
Nov 30, 2025	BUF Sabres @ MIN Wild Nov 29 • 8:00 PM EST	BUF Sabres ML (+325) Moneyline	+26.5%	High 80%	Win	+1.125
Nov 30, 2025	BUF Sabres @ MIN Wild Nov 29 • 8:00 PM EST	Over 6.5 (-101) Total	-3.4%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.068
Nov 30, 2025	BUF Sabres @ MIN Wild Nov 29 • 8:00 PM EST	BUF Sabres +1.5 (-203) Spread	-31.3%	High 80%	Win	-0.466
Nov 30, 2025	BUF Sabres @ MIN Wild Nov 29 • 8:00 PM EST	Under 6.5 (-140) Total	-13.4%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.227
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	Under 221.5 (-115) Total	-4.0%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.075
Nov 30, 2025	DET Pistons @ MIA Heat Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	Under 239 (-112) Total	-3.4%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.062
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	BKN Nets +11.5 (-114) Spread	-4.0%	High 80%	Loss	-0.076
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	Over 219 (-115) Total	-3.2%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	DET Pistons @ MIA Heat Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	DET Pistons ML (+140) Moneyline	+9.8%	High 80%	Win	+0.235
Nov 30, 2025	DET Pistons @ MIA Heat Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	Over 238 (-114) Total	-3.1%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	Over 218 (-115) Total	-3.2%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	Over 218.5 (-112) Total	-3.2%	Medium 50%	Loss	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	Under 220.5 (-115) Total	-4.4%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.082
Nov 30, 2025	DET Pistons @ MIA Heat Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	MIA Heat ML (-166) Moneyline	-14.0%	High 80%	Loss	-0.222
Nov 30, 2025	DET Pistons @ MIA Heat Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	MIA Heat -4.5 (-112) Spread	-3.3%	High 80%	Loss	-0.061
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	BKN Nets +10.5 (-115) Spread	-3.7%	High 80%	Loss	-0.070
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	BKN Nets +11 (-112) Spread	-3.2%	High 80%	Loss	-0.060
Nov 30, 2025	DET Pistons @ MIA Heat Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	DET Pistons +4.5 (-114) Spread	-3.2%	High 80%	Win	-0.061
Nov 30, 2025	DET Pistons @ MIA Heat Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	MIA Heat -3.5 (-114) Spread	-3.8%	High 80%	Loss	-0.072
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	BKN Nets ML (+425) Moneyline	+32.4%	High 80%	Loss	+1.702
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	MIL Bucks -11.5 (-110) Spread	-3.2%	High 80%	Win	-0.061
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	MIL Bucks ML (-575) Moneyline	-36.9%	High 80%	Win	-0.430
Nov 30, 2025	DET Pistons @ MIA Heat Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	DET Pistons +3.5 (-117) Spread	-4.0%	High 80%	Win	-0.072
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	Under 218 (-113) Total	-3.8%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.070
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	MIL Bucks -11 (-117) Spread	-3.6%	High 80%	Win	-0.064
Nov 30, 2025	BKN Nets @ MIL Bucks Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	Under 221 (-115) Total	-3.7%	Medium 50%	Win	-0.070
Nov 30, 2025	DET Pistons @ MIA Heat Nov 29 • 8:10 PM EST	MIA Heat -4 (-117) Spread	-3.1%	High 80%	Loss	-0.054