Pick
Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres
NHL • Spread
Winnipeg Jets -1.5 @ 205
Edge 36.1% • Confidence 80%
Jets -1.5 shows massive 36% edge with strong model confidence. Recent form concerns and injury uncertainty warrant caution despite favorable matchup.
Drivers
- Significant 36.08% edge between true probability (68.9%) and sportsbook probability (32.8%)
- Jets' offensive firepower: Kyle Connor (12G, 17A) vs. Sabres' defensive struggles (-12 goal differential)
- Sabres' recent collapse: 5-5 in last 10 games, 3.4 goals allowed per game
Risks
- Jets' concerning form: 4-6-0 in last 10 games, averaging only 2.9 goals per game
- Neal Pionk (D) day-to-day with lower body injury—status unclear for Monday matchup