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Official Picks

Today's card

High-confidence value bets vetted by Oddsmosis AI and our EV stack.

Generated Nov 30

Pick

Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres

NHL • Spread

Winnipeg Jets -1.5 @ 205

Edge 36.1% • Confidence 80%

Jets -1.5 shows massive 36% edge with strong model confidence. Recent form concerns and injury uncertainty warrant caution despite favorable matchup.

Drivers

  • Significant 36.08% edge between true probability (68.9%) and sportsbook probability (32.8%)
  • Jets' offensive firepower: Kyle Connor (12G, 17A) vs. Sabres' defensive struggles (-12 goal differential)
  • Sabres' recent collapse: 5-5 in last 10 games, 3.4 goals allowed per game

Risks

  • Jets' concerning form: 4-6-0 in last 10 games, averaging only 2.9 goals per game
  • Neal Pionk (D) day-to-day with lower body injury—status unclear for Monday matchup
View matchup

Pick

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz

NBA • Moneyline

Utah Jazz ML @ 445

Edge 28.8% • Confidence 80%

Jazz ML at +445 offers significant value with 28.78% edge. Model projects 47.1% win probability vs 18.4% implied odds—a rare mispricing on home underdog.

Drivers

  • Massive odds mispricing: Sportsbook implies 18.4% Jazz win probability vs model's 47.1%—nearly 3x undervalued
  • Home court advantage: Jazz 5-5 ATS at Delta Center this season; Rockets 8-2 on road but facing 12.5-point spread inflation
  • Recent Jazz momentum: Won last game 128-119 vs Sacramento with Keyonte George (31 pts) and Lauri Markkanen (28 pts) both healthy

Risks

  • Rockets' elite form: 12-4 record, 8-2 in last 10 games, 4-game road winning streak with dominant offensive efficiency (118.9 PPG, 46.9% FG)
  • Double-digit spread legitimacy: 12.5-point line reflects real talent gap; Jazz 0-4 ATS as 12.5+ underdogs this season
View matchup

Pick

Columbus Blue Jackets @ New Jersey Devils

NHL • Moneyline

Columbus Blue Jackets ML @ 320

Edge 26.2% • Confidence 80%

CBJ ML at +320 offers 26% edge with 50% true probability vs 24% sportsbook. Strong value but team form and goal differential present execution risk.

Drivers

  • Significant +26.19% edge between true probability (50%) and sportsbook probability (23.8%)
  • Attractive +320 odds provide 1.10 units expected value on unit bet
  • No critical injuries for either team entering matchup

Risks

  • Columbus 1-4 in last 5 games vs New Jersey 3-2—stark form differential favors home team
  • CBJ averages only 2.5 goals per game while conceding 3.2—negative goal differential suggests offensive struggles
View matchup
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UFC

Ultimate Fighting Championship

14 games scheduled

Saturday, December 6

6:15 PM
UFC
MAI
Mairon Santos
-265
MUH
Muhammadjon Naimov
+205
Rounds
-
Total
-
6:45 PM
UFC
ANT
Antonio Trocoli
+800
MAN
Mansur Abdul-Malik
-1250
Rounds
-
Total
-
7:15 PM
UFC
IBO
Ibo Aslan
+150
IWO
Iwo Baraniewski
-186
Rounds
-
Total
-
7:30 PM
UFC
JAL
Jalin Turner
-278
EDS
Edson Barboza
+215
Rounds
-
Total
-
7:45 PM
UFC
BRU
Brunno Ferreira
-105
MAR
Marvin Vettori
-118
Rounds
-
Total
-
8:15 PM
UFC
FAR
Fares Ziam
-132
NAZ
Nazim Sadykhov
+107
Rounds
-
Total
-
8:45 PM
UFC
KAR
Karine Silva
+145
MAY
Maycee Barber
-182
Rounds
-
Total
-
9:15 PM
UFC
CHR
Chris Duncan
-175
TER
Terrance Mckinney
+138
Rounds
-
Total
-
9:45 PM
UFC
MAN
Manuel Torres
+163
GRA
Grant Dawson
-205
Rounds
-
Total
-
10:15 PM
UFC
BOG
Bogdan Guskov
+116
JAN
Jan Blachowicz
-143
Rounds
-
Total
-
10:45 PM
UFC
PAY
Payton Talbott
-278
HEN
Henry Cejudo
+215
Rounds
-
Total
-
11:15 PM
UFC
TAT
Tatsuro Taira
-127
BRA
Brandon Moreno
+102
Rounds
-
Total
-
11:30 PM
UFC
JOS
Joshua Van
+185
ALE
Alexandre Pantoja
-225
Rounds
-
Total
-

Sunday, December 7

12:30 AM
UFC
PET
Petr Yan
+340
MER
Merab Dvalishvili
-455
Rounds
-
Total
-